WASHINGTON - Easing fears about
inflation, wholesale prices fell by the largest amount in 20 months
in December, aided by a big decline in the cost of energy.
In other good economic news, output at the nation's beleaguered
manufacturing companies rose strongly last month, helping factories
enjoy their first annual increase in output since 2000.
Analysts said Friday's reports depicted an economy that began the
new year on a good footing with mild inflation and signs of strength
in the long-suffering manufacturing sector, which has seen the loss
of 2.7 million jobs in the past four years.
"These are very positive reports showing solid production at
year's end with moderating inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief
economist at Economy.com.
Wall Street welcomed the good news on wholesale prices and
industrial production, pushing the Dow Jones industrial average up
by 52.17 points Friday. That made back almost half the 111.95 points
lost Thursday. The Dow closed Friday at 10,558.
The Labor Department's Producer Price Index, which tracks
inflation before it reaches the consumer, posted a decline of 0.7
percent last month as gasoline and other energy prices plunged by4
percent, the biggest drop since April 2003.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said industrial production rose by
0.8 percent in December, far above the modest 0.2 percent rise in
November. Manufacturing production was up 0.7 percent during the
month while output at utilities rose by 2.7 percent and mining had a
0.4 percent increase.
For the year, industrial production rose by 4.1 percent, the best
showing since 2000 and a sharp turnaround from the past three years,
when production either fell or was flat.
"Manufacturing has finally broken out of its slump," said David
Huether, chief economist at the National Association of
Manufacturers, noting that last year's rebound was broad-based with
growth in 16 of 19 major industries.
Huether predicted further strong gains in factory output this
year as businesses boost capital spending and the decline in the
value of the dollar against other currencies helps to boost exports.
However, David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in
New York, said the trade deficit is still worsening as domestic
manufacturers continue to be battered by imports.
"I think we are through the worst of manufacturing's troubles,
although we are still not seeing much in the way of actual strength,
especially in employment growth," he said.
The better-than-expected 0.7 percent drop in wholesale prices
last month, the biggest decline since a 1.5 percent fall in April
2003, followed sharp increases of 1.7 percent in October and 0.5
percent in November, gains that were propelled by skyrocketing
energy prices.
The 4 percent drop in energy prices in December reflected
unusually warm weather, especially in the Northeast, where there is
a heavy reliance on home heating oil.
But analysts cautioned that energy prices rebounded again this
week amid worries about upcoming cold weather, the turmoil in Iraq
and a dip in crude oil and heating oil inventories.
For all of 2004, wholesale prices rose by 4.1 percent, up
slightly from a 4 percent increase in 2003. Both years recorded the
biggest wholesale inflation increases since a 5.7 percent surge in
1990, another year when turmoil in the Middle East sent world oil
prices soaring.
Outside the volatile energy and food sectors, inflation was
better behaved, with the so-called core rate of wholesale inflation
rising by just2.2 percent in 2004, up from a 1 percent increase in
2003.
Analysts said the performance of core inflation should satisfy
Federal Reserve policy-makers that, despite the jump in energy
prices last year, inflation is not threatening to get out of
control.
Many economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would keep
raising interest rates at a moderate pace of quarter-point moves
through 2005.
Food prices at the wholesale level edged up a tiny 0.1 percent in
December after rising by 0.4 percent in November. The price
moderation reflected a big 26.4 percent drop in the cost of
vegetables, the biggest decline since April 2002, which offset price
increases in other foods.
Outside food and energy, prices in December rose by a slight 0.1
percent, following a gain of 0.2 percent in November. This slowdown
in core inflation reflected lower auto prices, which fell as
automakers again offered more attractive discounting incentives.
In another report Friday, the Commerce Department said
inventories held by businesses on shelves and back lots rose by 1
percent in November. That reflected, in part, a slowdown in sales,
which rose by only 0.4 percent after a much bigger 1.4 percent
October increase.